HD DVD vs. BluRay: the real numbers

December 17, 2007 | In Technology | No Comments

The following is an e-mail I wrote to a friend regarding some numbers I looked up on the whole HD DVD vs. BluRay battle. I felt like sharing:

The real numbers on BluRay vs. HD DVD
To: Derek
From: Me

I’ve been doing some research on the whole BluRay selling 2.7 million players (cough including PS3s).

Right, well here is what I’ve found.

PlayStation 3, since launch, which as we know all have BluRay players have sold nearly 2.1 million units alone. Umm, that means about 600,000 dedicated bluray players have been sold. Lets say that 20 percent of those PS3s are being used as BluRay players – a number I think is too high, but I’ll be optimistic for them, that would put them at about 200,000 meaning there is ABOUT 1 million BluRay players out there REALLY. And that is OPTIMISTIC!

Now for the HD DVD side of things, about 1.5 plus the 90,000 plus residual HD-A3s that were sold following the Walmart sale fall out. In my mind – that means there are more active HD DVD players than BluRay. That number is supported by the sales figures of software on Amazon and subscriptions on Netflix for HD DVD over BluRay.

I will admit, more BluRay discs have been sold – I will say this is due to the Disney and Sony movie factors – there are more big name titles on that format – for now. I think you are going to see an influx of HD DVD tiles that are going to be “MUST HAVES” because there are more active HD DVD viewers than Sony wants to admit.

I bet by mid 2008 we’ll have a $100 HD DVD player as the standard entry price. BluRay will hit the $100 sale by next Christmas and will stabilize at $250 for entry. If they can’t keep a $100 model on the floor by the start of 2009 – I think BluRay will be in some real trouble.

If I had a little more motivation, I would cite my research, I’m giving this to you as is. I encourage everyone to look into the numbers for yourself. Things to keep in mind – BluRay still has the studio support – an important factor, but HD DVD has the lower price tag – an undeniable factor.

Thoughts?